FINAL: Five Predictions For the Future of Music on the Wireless Internet

We live in a technological world that is constantly evolving. Quoting Dale Carnegie in today's Music Media Solutions lab presentation for Emmis Broadcasting, Professor Jerry Del Colliano noted that it is in the best interest of broadcasters to take advantage of the new technologies that are out there, especially if they want to retain listener ship. It is another teaching of Carnegie's, however, that should serve as a lesson for most of the "big-wigs" in today's music industry. This teaching reads, "Inaction breeds doubt and fear. Action breeds confidence and courage. If you want to conquer fear, do not sit home and think about it. Go out and get busy." These "big-wigs" are afraid of how new technologies will change the music and recording industries. These individuals are afraid because they are unaware of the affects of this change. In order to achieve success, these suits must adapt quickly to change and overcome whatever reservations they may have regarding the issue.

In this final post, I will propose five predictions for how the music industry will evolve in response to advancements in wireless technology. Specifically advancements regarding WiFi and WiMax technologies, as they become readily available to the public. These predictions are as follows:

1. Free Downloads and On-Demand Streams of Music



2. An End to Podcasting



3. Terrestrial Radio Will Turn to Internet Broadcasting



4. The Death of HD Radio



5. Satellite Radio Will Flourish in Automobiles

Prediction #1: individuals will be able to access free downloads and streams of their favorite music whenever they want. Although this may not seem like a novel concept, there is more to it than meets the eye. Peer-to-Peer (P2P) networks gave rise to the on-demand access of free content. The introduction and incorporation of p2p file-sharing programs and online radio stations (abiding by this on-demand model) into the daily lives of Americans created a decline in record sales and radio audiences. Americans began to grow accustomed to receiving music instantly and without cost. In order for the RIAA, the music, and entertainment industries to increase their revenue, they must change their ways of promotion, distribution and marketing. In an interview conducted by John Sutton Smith on behalf of the Recording Academy for Grammy Magazine's April 2006 edition, Bonnie Raitt agrees, (when questioned about the affect digital technology has had on her recent career), “We have to be creative and figure out how to let people know that you have a new record out in different ways, so we basically did a live album for iTunes, live recordings for Sirius Radio, a huge VH1 special, another concert on DirecTV, and we did AOL Sessions, so I was editing and mixing for two months what basically [amounted] to three or four live albums. It’s certainly changed how we deliver music”. Back in 2005, the likelihood of completely shifting traditional forms of distribution to digital was not likely, “while the record companies and the publishers have had ample opportunity to voluntarily put such a licensing system in place, making it easy for consumers to get the music that they want digitally, it is quite unlikely that they will ever do so of their own accord, for what is now a familiar reason: they lose control,” (Kusek, David, Gerd Leonhard, “A New Music Economy”, The Future of Music p.132 2005).

However, things have quickly changed in two years. Suddenly the move towards digital distribution and acquisition is more plausible. Websites like Pandora.com have developed over the past couple of years to offer listeners with free streams of their favorite music. Pandora allows users to customize radio stations and skip over songs that they do not like. Such websites give hope that user suggested content is on the horizon in addition to free downloads. Now, more than ever, illegal downloads haunt the record industry. P2P networks serve as the means by which users receive illegal content. “It is estimated that hundreds of millions of copies of these free software applications have been downloaded and that millions of people are online trading music files every minute of everyday around the world.” (Kusek, David, Gerd Leonhard, “Music Like Water”, The Future of Music p.5-6 2005). From this format, people have the potential to communicate with others about new music or media and share personal interests. This is the exact appeal of social networking sites like Last.Fm which allow users to share their play lists and communicate with those of similar musical tastes. Clearly such technology and websites promote conflict within the record industry. With WiFi becoming readily available to the masses, illegal downloading will only increase. Instead of being a service, like it once was, music has evolved into an inherent need for people--like water. In order to accommodate this need, the record industry must adapt to these changes and accept the fact that legal purchasing of music is just not plausible for the future. Labels must acknowledge that they will not be making money from the exploitation of records so they must find alternative means of promoting, marketing, and monetizing artists. Additionally, the industry must encompass on-demand models (while distributing, promoting, and marketing media) to satisfy the general public. Once these changes are successfully achieved, the music industry will be able to make profit from their artists.

Prediction #2: Podcasting will reach the end of its road. Podcasts can be an effective way in promoting artists and other entities. However, one must consider the amount of people that actually subscribe and listen to these Podcasts. People are progressively becoming disinterested in both broadcasting and listening to Podcasts. Listeners and independent broadcasters are beginning to find other things to do with their time. Although Podcasts democratize media and broadcasters can create and determine the material they broadcast without reservation, there is not enough incentive to continue broadcasting---most of these DJs are not paid. Thus, the fad of the Podcasts is slowly dwindling, people do not have the time to integrate the listening of Podcasts into their busy lifestyles. At times it seems as though there are more Podcasts in existence than actual people on this earth. There are far too many podcasts in existence to attract listeners and viewers. Like any other fad, it is without a doubt that Podcasting will continue to run its course until the majority of the public loses interest. Especially with the expansion of WiFi technology, Podcasts will flourish with increased user created content then plateau.

Not everyone has iTunes, or an iPod, or even the Internet. It is impossible for Podcasting to become a revolution of new media as a means of changing how consumers view the music and entertainment industries. First of all, there are issues with licensing and rights management that Podcasting has stumbled upon. Currently, broadcasters are extremely limited with the amount and kind of music they can broadcast during each podcast. There are certain licenses that must be purchased in order to have control over the broadcasting of recorded music. In particular the Telecommunications Act of 1996 is violated every time an independent broadcaster plays a song with major label publishing. As a result, broadcasters are limited to just talk, independent music, and producing their own music on-air. There are plans to revise the Telecommunications Act of 1996 for Internet and web-based programs and, perhaps, a modified blanket license will become available for Podcasters; but, until then, it is unlikely that people will consistently tune into programs that feature just talk with the occasional uninhibited song—is this not what listeners of terrestrial radio ran away from in the first place?

In the future, Podcasting will become obsolete. There will be new developments and inventions within the next 10, 20, 30 years that will divert subscribers’ attention. Individuals will come to realize that specialized-programming is not necessarily worth spending the time to listen to. Artists will resort to social computing sites to gain continued and guaranteed promotion—the Podcast is unnecessary for this means of technology. Radio will find other ways to survive, it does not need Podcasting to secure its existence. Radio survived the invention of the television and it will attempt to combat the wave of Internet-based new media. This is the beauty of the Internet—every development is ephemeral because everything, especially Internet technology, has the potential to change and will change—it does not seem as though Podcasting will survive this ultimate change.

Prediction #3: Terrestrial radio will shift its broadcasting to be on the Internet. Once WiFi and WiMax become available on a larger scale to the public, the prevalence of Internet radio will increase ten-fold. Professor Steve Cunningham mentioned once in lecture that Internet radio has become the fastest growing radio format in the past few years. He agrees that once WiFi becomes readily available, Internet radio will quickly gain popularity. There will be thousands upon thousands of stations available to listeners on-demand. Back in 2004, About:Radio reporter Corey Deitz saw the future of Internet radio as the future of Internet radio as "bright". He agrees that Internet radio "will slowly evolve and with the help of broadband, wireless, and product development it will find it’s rightful place in the home, auto and hand-held device." Eventually the stubborn terrestrial programmers will realize the potential of the wireless Internet and develop a game plan for breaking into Internet radio niche-markets. Already there are thousands of user-created online radio stations. Free services like Live 365 take advantage of Internet radio. Live 365 provides thousands of free Internet radio stations from all over the world that are categorized by musical genre. Pandora and Yahoo! Music are other free online music host sites that allow users to stream radio stations live complete with their favorite artists and genres.

An important characteristic of Internet broadcasting is its on-demand aspect. On-demand gives the listener the illusion that they control what they are listening to. If terrestrial stations create a way that listeners can instant message the dj their requests, and if the dj's do honor these requests, then we have go something going on here. This model is similar to that of college radio. KSCR, the radio station of the University of Southern California, operates on the typical college radio standard. Hosting a simultaneous terrestrial (AM band) and Internet broadcast, KSCR targets its student population on campus. However, the majority of KSCR's listenership is generated from its online stream. This is a result of the fact that its AM-Band (1560 AM) only works within a 10-mile radius of its studio, located in Marks Hall. And, of course, terrestrial broadcasting is impractical in today's society...especially for the demographic of 18-24 year olds. Current KSCR General Manager Nicole Williams mentioned casually to me that KSCR generates over 4,000 listeners per week via its online broadcast--a noble feat for any radio station on the Internet (especially since KSCR is not a household name). This feat is especially notable since funding for the station was recently cut 45% by the USC student government. As an example made by KSCR and other online stations and hosting sites, there is definitely a home for current terrestrial streams online. Terrestrial stations can dominate the online market with their vast funds and sponsorships to provide a one-stop shop for their listeners.

Prediction #4: HD Radio will die out. In opposition to what the majority of the RIAA and NAB may think, HD radio only serves as mechanism by which terrestrial radio stations can play more eclectic genres of music; essentially creating an "underground" radio model that was successful and flourished in the 1960's. This will not, however, replace digital and web-based radio services. Generally, listeners want a radio station that is going provide the highest quality of content possible. There is noting "High Def" about HD radio. The quality of sound is not much better than it is on FM and the quality of content is the same. With masses quickly becoming accustomed to radio services the Internet has to offer, terrestrial radio will become close to obsolete and what little importance is placed on HD radio will diminish. Not only is HD radio pathetic, but also it comes at a cost. Currently, HD radios can cost anywhere from $200-$1,000.

The high cost of HD radio is daunting. Some reason that programming on side channels will be a bit better if not the same as the main terrestrial channel and, if this is the case, then why should they spend the money? If anything, HD radio creates exclusivity as opposed to inclusiveness. By valuing HD radio at such a high cost, this crack-team in radio is combating competition by isolating its listeners. This just doesn't make sense---why would you attempt to gain listenership through a high cost of listening (in both respects)? The future of the wireless Internet is categorized by inclusiveness, so there is no place for an exclusive technology like HD radio.

Prediction #5: Satellite Radio will flourish in automobiles. With an increase in the prevalence of wireless Internet, a market will be created where satellite radio can dominate. Currently, XM and Sirius are the two main satellite radio providers and, with their proposed merger, there is a potential to monopolize the market. To remain consistent with prediction #3, once terrestrial radio makes its shift over to Internet broadcasting, there will be a need for a car radio replacement. Here is where satellite radio comes in. Already, listeners have the option of having satellite service in their cars. Some vehicles even come with satellite radio already installed. Satellite providers are going a step further with Sirius' new "Backseat TV". Backseat TV will solidify satellite providers' dominance in the automobile market. I could go on and on about this, but I believe that the presented examples speak for themselves regarding satellite content providers' future. For, XM and Sirius will no longer been seen as purely satellite radio providers--in the future these companies will be in the satellite mobile content industry.

So there you have it, my top 5 predictions for the future of the wireless Internet. It will definitely be exciting to see in the coming days, months, and years if any of my predictions make it to fruition. Keep in mind that with new technology comes change, and with change comes opportunity. If individuals welcome this change, then great chances for monetary gain result. The music industry, especially, must adapt to changes posed by these technologies. Currently, we live in a culture that favors on-demand acquisition and knows the feeling of free downloads. As a result, individuals do not feel the same way about music as they once did during the times of, say, the Beatles. The music industry, in particular, must find alternative measures of reclaiming the awe and wonder music sparked amongst audiences—they must find alternative means of promoting, marketing and distributing music. Additionally, the industry must encompass on-demand models (while distributing, promoting, and marketing media) to satisfy the general public.